Lance Roberts

PA The One Signal Behind Every 20% Market Decline in 151 Years

The One Signal Behind Every 20% Market Decline in 151 Years

In 151 years, every single 20% market decline was accompanied by a double-digit earnings decline, with zero exceptions.

PA Wall Street Says Dump Your Bonds. Here's Why That's a Costly Mistake.

Wall Street Says Dump Your Bonds. Here's Why That's a Costly Mistake.

PA The AI Bear Case Has Three Arguments. Only Two Hold Up.

The AI Bear Case Has Three Arguments. Only Two Hold Up.

The AI “bear case” isn’t one argument; it’s three. Burry on earnings. Bernstein on circular financing. MIT on revenue.

PA Treasuries Didn’t Fail. Investors Misunderstood Risk.

Treasuries Didn’t Fail. Investors Misunderstood Risk.

I’ve read the paper, and it is good work. It also doesn’t say what most of the people quoting it think it says.

PA The AI Capex Bill Comes Due

The AI Capex Bill Comes Due

A number that looks frightening in isolation can be rational once you see the asset it bought and the revenue it is producing.

PA Three Charts Explaining Today’s Biggest Market Risks

Three Charts Explaining Today’s Biggest Market Risks

With this new bullish dollar narrative, let’s explore how a strengthening dollar affects the US economy and foreign economies.

PA Investors Are Watching Margin Debt All Wrong

Investors Are Watching Margin Debt All Wrong

Most of them can’t measure margin debt risk in any way that helps you manage a portfolio, and the most popular one is the least useful of the bunch.

PA Have the Magnificent 7 Become the Biggest Buying Opportunity of 2026?

Have the Magnificent 7 Become the Biggest Buying Opportunity of 2026?

Nearly every major desk, from BofA and Morgan Stanley to Goldman, JPMorgan, and HSBC, is leaning the same contrarian way.

PA Summer Rally or Summer Correction?

Summer Rally or Summer Correction?

Two weeks ago, after the S&P 500 logged its ninth consecutive weekly gain, we discussed that a bull market pullback was coming. It came.

PA Inflation Came in at 4.2%—But the Real Story Is Oil

Inflation Came in at 4.2%—But the Real Story Is Oil

While the doom crowd is frantically telling you that the May inflation print of 4.2% means the Fed is trapped and the bull market is over.

PA Most People Misunderstand the K-Shaped Economy

Most People Misunderstand the K-Shaped Economy

But it’s shrinking because millions of households climbed into higher brackets, not because they slid into poverty.

PA SPCX Is Firing Up: 3 Businesses to Breakdown

SPCX Is Firing Up: 3 Businesses to Breakdown

The space launch segment generated $4.1 billion in revenue in 2025 but posted a $657 million operating loss.

PA Oil Markets Are Betting This Crisis Ends Soon

Oil Markets Are Betting This Crisis Ends Soon

PA The Biggest Equity Supply Wave in History Is Coming. Should Investors Worry?

The Biggest Equity Supply Wave in History Is Coming. Should Investors Worry?

The question isn’t whether the equity supply is coming. It’s what happens after it lands.

PA Inflation Looks Hot Today, but Bond Markets Are Already Betting on What Comes Next

Inflation Looks Hot Today, but Bond Markets Are Already Betting on What Comes Next

It’s worth explaining the math behind CPI and monthly price changes. Gasoline accounts for roughly 3.5% of the CPI basket.

PA Two-Month Market Rally: What Comes Next?

Two-Month Market Rally: What Comes Next?

Here’s the playbook. We continue to suggest trimming the most extended winners back toward their target weights.

PA Nobody Is Positioned for This Dollar Trade

Nobody Is Positioned for This Dollar Trade

Today, we will explore the stronger-dollar trade, the one macro trade that nobody is sized for.

PA Risk Management for Retirees: When to Reduce Exposure

Risk Management for Retirees: When to Reduce Exposure

The blur costs retirees real money, because by the time they figure it out, they’ve already sat through a drawdown they didn’t need to take.

PA Michael Saylor’s Biggest Bitcoin Promise Just Died

Michael Saylor’s Biggest Bitcoin Promise Just Died

PA Nvidia’s “Blackwell Cliff” Never Arrived—But a Bigger Risk Remains

Nvidia’s “Blackwell Cliff” Never Arrived—But a Bigger Risk Remains

Based on Nvidia’s last earnings report, the data and executive commentary tell a different story.

PA The Dollar Isn’t Dying — It’s Expanding Its Global Grip

The Dollar Isn’t Dying — It’s Expanding Its Global Grip

Dollar dominance isn’t fading. In fact, the events of late April 2026 just delivered the loudest counter-signal in years.

PA Consumer Confidence Is Falling: Will Bond Yields Follow?

Consumer Confidence Is Falling: Will Bond Yields Follow?

The normalization of oil prices, coupled with weaker demand for many goods and services, should push bond yields back to or below their pre-war levels.

PA Wall Street’s 20% Bear Market Rule Is Breaking Down in Modern Markets

Wall Street’s 20% Bear Market Rule Is Breaking Down in Modern Markets

PA SpaceX Mania Meets a New Fed Chair: The Market Risks Investors Can’t Ignore

SpaceX Mania Meets a New Fed Chair: The Market Risks Investors Can’t Ignore

Make no mistake. The SpaceX IPO will be enormous, and the company is one of the most impressive of our generation.

PA Bond Market Alarm Bells Ring Again as Yields Hit One-Year Highs

Bond Market Alarm Bells Ring Again as Yields Hit One-Year Highs

PA Its Not Just Nvidia: Three Chips Power The Boom

Its Not Just Nvidia: Three Chips Power The Boom

To better appreciate the chip boom, we summarize the three distinct chips that an AI server requires.

PA Software Stocks May Be Preparing for a Powerful Comeback Against Semiconductors

Software Stocks May Be Preparing for a Powerful Comeback Against Semiconductors

Some political pundits think that Iran holds important negotiating cards versus the US if it can control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

PA Buffett Cash Hoard: Why $397 Billion Sits On The Sidelines

Buffett Cash Hoard: Why $397 Billion Sits On The Sidelines

It earned roughly four to five percent in Treasury bills while the S&P 500 ripped through three of its best consecutive years in modern history.

PA A Handful of Stocks Are Carrying the Market—And That’s Raising Summer Risk

A Handful of Stocks Are Carrying the Market—And That’s Raising Summer Risk

We are bearish on the assumption that this market leadership will remain durable for another 12 to 18 months without a meaningful reset.

PA Social Media’s Stagflation Trade Sounds Smart Until You Follow Full Economic Cycle

Social Media’s Stagflation Trade Sounds Smart Until You Follow Full Economic Cycle

Most damaging investment advice isn’t built on outright lies. It’s built on partial truths, stretched past the point where the data still holds

PA McDonald’s and Peers Sink While Consumers Pull Back and Diet Trends Reshape Demand

McDonald’s and Peers Sink While Consumers Pull Back and Diet Trends Reshape Demand

Many of its competitors are at or near 52-week lows. The bullet points below show how far other fast food retailers are from their 52-week highs.

PA Semiconductor Stocks Have Entered Dangerous Parabolic Territory

Semiconductor Stocks Have Entered Dangerous Parabolic Territory

The chart is now textbook parabolic. And parabolic charts almost never end politely.

PA Bonds Under Pressure Or Stocks Overvalued?

Bonds Under Pressure Or Stocks Overvalued?

When looking at any graph comparing two instruments, as we have below, it’s always tempting to tell a story based on one of the two securities.

PA Wall Street’s Earnings Forecasts Just Turned Bullish

Wall Street’s Earnings Forecasts Just Turned Bullish

Q1 was a genuinely strong quarter. Margins are real. Cash flow is real. The broadening is real. None of that is in dispute.

PA Everyone Is Long Commodities… and That’s Exactly the Problem

Everyone Is Long Commodities… and That’s Exactly the Problem

After three decades of managing money, I have learned to be THE most skeptical of the trades that feel the most inevitable.

PA Oil Rig Counts Don’t Tell The Whole Story

Oil Rig Counts Don’t Tell The Whole Story

Many investors may assume that no growth in the number of operating oil rigs implies limited oil production growth, that assumption is not necessarily true