Michael P. Lebowitz
Michael Lebowitz brings more than 25 years of financial markets and risk management experience to RIA Advisors. Throughout his career, Michael has been involved in trading, portfolio construction and risk management involving some of the largest and most active portfolios in the world. In addition to broad institutional experience, he also built a successful independent RIA which allowed him to further extend his experience into the realm of investment management for individuals and family offices. Michael's background and experience are the product of a diverse career path that affords him a unique investment and economic perspective. Grounded in logic and common sense, he blends his vast trading and investment expertise with economic viewpoints that delivers pragmatic and actionable thought leadership to clients. Learn more here .
Articles by Michael P. Lebowitz
- Market Intelligence
Peace in Iran: Can a Deal Drive a Second Half Rally?
Investors should be thinking ahead. What will a peace deal, whether it’s this week or in months, mean for markets?
- Research
A Massive Wave of New Stock Supply Is Headed for Markets
Now, the Financial Times claims that Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are planning similarly large equity raises to fund their 2026 capital expenditures.
- Market Intelligence
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Are About To Drain Wall Street’s Liquidity
While IPO boom talk is great for clickbait, nobody is asking the most important question. Where will the money come from?
- Market Intelligence
SpaceX Isn’t the Biggest IPO Story. Funding It Is.
There is a more important question stemming from the SpaceX IPO and other large deals that few seem to be asking: where will the money come from?
- Research
Quantum Computing Is Real. Commercial Success Is Another Story
Sudden, significant, and fundamental change. It is also a perfect adjective for coining the next potential technological innovation—quantum computing
- Research
The AI Bubble Warning Wall Street Doesn’t Want to Hear
Given the strong correlation between oil prices and CPI, the type of normalization could profoundly reduce CPI and, with it, sharply reduce bond yields.
- Artificial Intelligence
Fast AI Adoption Could Reshape Jobs, Wages, and Wealth for Decades
Therefore, we follow our bullish case with a different perspective on how AI could negatively impact the economy, especially in the near term.
- Research
Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Concern About Inflation and Higher Rates
We think the Fed’s mindset is largely neutral, not necessarily hawkish, as the media and markets largely portray.
- Active Insights
SpaceX Targets Up to $2 Trillion IPO Valuation With Starlink Driving Profit Surge
SpaceX filed its securities registration with the SEC and is now set to conduct its IPO on or around June 12th.
- Artificial Intelligence
AI Infrastructure Spending Is Becoming a Major Driver of US Economic Growth
Let’s open the door to our economy to better appreciate how AI is currently impacting it and how it may change in the future.
- Active Insights
Nvidia, Rising Yields, and Options Pressure Set Stage for a High-Stakes Earnings Move
Rates are rising. The 30-year UST yield is now above 5.00%. High interest rates compress the multiples that help justify NVDA’s valuation
- Market Intelligence
S&P 500 Surge Masks Weak Breadth as Options Flow and Gamma Drive Price Action
Similarly, while the broad market indexes have performed well, the bulk of the gains are coming from a relatively small handful of companies.
- Research
Kevin Warsh Takes Over Fed as Market Rally Shows Signs of Structural Weakness
Miran projected a year-end 2026 Fed Funds rate of 2.625%, nearly a full percentage point below the current median of 3.42%. That dovish voice is now gone.
- Market Intelligence
Intel’s 200% AI Surge: Is Wall Street Pricing In 2028 Already?
Momentum and gamma are driving the outperformance, and, in their wake, a supportive narrative is trying to justify it.
- Active Insights
Labor Market Signals Are Breaking From History Ahead of the Next Jobs Report
Declines in temporary help services employment preceded the last three recessions by 6 to 12 months in each case.
- Market Intelligence
Gold Bugs Keep Missing This Critical Inflation Truth
First, it lacks critical context. Second, it fails to consider another key factor driving inflation: the velocity of money.
- Active Insights
Nvidia Losing Leadership as AMD and Intel Surge
. NVDA is now the laggard within its own sector, an unfamiliar position for a stock that has effectively been the market for the last 24 months.
- Active Insights
AI Spending Boom Meets Market Reality: Alphabet Wins While Meta and Microsoft Get Repriced
The market isn’t punishing AI spending. It is demanding receipts that justify the magnitude of AI spending.
- Active Insights
Private Credit Chaos Is Crushing BDCs—Opportunity or Trap?
The poor sentiment toward private credit funds has dragged down many high-quality BDCs, as well as weaker ones.
- Research
Wall Street Sent a Clear Signal: No Guidance, No Mercy
The stark message from Wall Street is that forward sales and earnings guidance now take precedence over recent financial results.
- Active Insights
Few Stocks Are Driving This Rally While Most Lag Behind
Regarding breadth, consider that despite the S&P 500 being at a record high, only 65% of stocks are above their 20-day moving averages
- Market Intelligence
Inside Private Credit: Growth, Liquidity Strain, and Rising Market Concerns
The private credit tremors started with the bankruptcies in the auto sector — Tricolor and First Brands.
- Active Insights
Record Low Consumer Sentiment Meets Record High Markets
The concern, however, is forward-looking. Sentiment doesn’t just measure how people feel; at times it can shape how they spend.
- Market Intelligence
Will Private Credit Cause The Next Financial Crisis?
As a result, some people think that recent rumblings in private credit may be a precursor to a new financial crisis.
- Active Insights
AI Arms Race Heats up While Apple Waits for Perfect Entry Point
While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash.
- Research
What Beta Misses When Markets Turn Volatile
Given recent volatility and declining prices, the timing could not be better to explore both the power of beta and its important constraints.
- Research
VIX vs. Reality: Tension Building Beneath Surface of This Market
The bearish interpretation is that the VIX is telling the truth and realized volatility is the lie.
- Market Intelligence
Oversold Stocks and Oil Spikes Signal Opportunity, Not Panic
Behavioral finance calls this availability bias: the tendency to judge the likelihood of an outcome by how easily a vivid example comes to mind.
- Artificial Intelligence
AI Could Supercharge Growth—or Trigger a Job Market Crisis
While evaluating the impact of AI on the labor market is complex, we can distill both optimistic and pessimistic views into two straightforward questions.
- Active Insights
LENDX Faces Massive Redemptions Amid Private Credit Concerns
The Stone Ridge Alternative Lending Risk Premium Fund LENDX is the latest to face liquidity pressure amid growing concerns about private credit.
- Market Intelligence
S&P 500 Calm Masks Deep Sector Turbulence
Another confirmation of the wide dispersion of returns in the constituents of the S&P 500 and yet relatively calm trading in the index itself.
- Market Intelligence
$1.2 Trillion Risk Building Beneath Markets Could Force Fed’s Hand
The Fed has a history of cutting rates and boosting liquidity when the labor market and inflation levels don’t necessitate action.
- Research
Rising Brent Premium Reveals What Traders Expect From Escalating Iran Tensions
While energy prices are vital to monitor, far fewer investors track the telling price spread between Brent and WTI oil.
- Market Intelligence
Real Value: Looking Through The Value Rotation Illusion
A passive investment environment is oftentimes agnostic to valuations, blurring the lines between traditional investment styles like value and growth.
- Market Intelligence
Oil Curve Signals Short-Term Spike, Not Lasting Shock
In the context of the current Iran conflict, the oil curve is signaling that the short-term spike is unlikely to last.
- Research
Stronger Dollar Sends Ripples Through Global Assets
The appreciating dollar’s ripple effects are being felt across asset classes in ways that are easy to miss but unwise to ignore.