Michael P. Lebowitz

AI Could Supercharge Growth—or Trigger a Job Market Crisis

While evaluating the impact of AI on the labor market is complex, we can distill both optimistic and pessimistic views into two straightforward questions.

Dollar Debasement or Speculative Bubble? Gold, Bitcoin, and Market Signals

Thus, the question we raise is whether this is the right time for gold holders to swap for bitcoin.

The Market’s Most Leveraged Bitcoin Bet Is Cracking—and It Could Spill Into AI, Tech, and Gold

Given that their Bitcoin is worth approximately $61 billion, debt holders are in a good position. But, Bitcoin holders are getting a little wary.

The Economist Makes a Case for Solar Energy

The increasing use of solar energy is due not only to its environmental benefits but also its falling cost. #ESG #solar

Alphabet’s Rare 2126 Bond Issue Meets Speculative Energy Surge and Job Revisions Shock

On the small piece of debt, Alphabet insulates itself from future interest-rate cycles and the need to refinance debt at maturity.

Markets Near All-Time Highs, but Signals Suggest More Volatility Ahead

Ten-year Treasury auction on Wednesday was on the weaker side, yet the bond market reaction was minimal.

Could a Recession Raise Bond Yields? Why TIPS May Outperform When Logic Fails

While many factors will ultimately influence the answer, the primary constraint on a decline in yield may be the government’s response to a recession

Chasing Yield: Is This the Next Big Bond Market Narrative?

When the bond market changes direction and yields fall, the two narratives we share below, and others, may replace today’s bearish narratives. #bonds

Is the Bond Market Facing a Major Paradigm Shift?

Some bearish bond investors in Japan and the US appear to believe that a paradigm shift is underway in the sovereign bond markets. #USA #Japan

The Bond Market’s Tug of War: Are Narratives Beating Fundamentals?

the difference between narratives and fundamentals. However, we briefly review the current situation with Treasury yields before starting. #bonds

Why Bond Yields Are Really Surging: The Battle Between Narrative and Fundamentals

Bond Market Jitters: How the Basis Trade Is Stirring Volatility

Many rumors are floating around. For instance, some claim China is selling Treasury bonds in retaliation for increased tariffs.

Elon Musk's Influence on Bond Markets: A New Era?

If the administration wants lower rates, as Trump has said repeatedly, the President and Elon Musk can not rely on Chairman Powell #rates #inflation

Why Emerging Junk Bonds Are Gaining Demand

While it may seem like a win-win scenario, it rarely turns out that way when something is too good to be true. #bonds

Inside Private Credit: Growth, Liquidity Strain, and Rising Market Concerns

The private credit tremors started with the bankruptcies in the auto sector — Tricolor and First Brands.

Will Private Credit Cause The Next Financial Crisis?

As a result, some people think that recent rumblings in private credit may be a precursor to a new financial crisis.

Oversold Stocks and Oil Spikes Signal Opportunity, Not Panic

Behavioral finance calls this availability bias: the tendency to judge the likelihood of an outcome by how easily a vivid example comes to mind.

S&P 500 Calm Masks Deep Sector Turbulence

Another confirmation of the wide dispersion of returns in the constituents of the S&P 500 and yet relatively calm trading in the index itself.

$1.2 Trillion Risk Building Beneath Markets Could Force Fed’s Hand

The Fed has a history of cutting rates and boosting liquidity when the labor market and inflation levels don’t necessitate action.

Real Value: Looking Through The Value Rotation Illusion

A passive investment environment is oftentimes agnostic to valuations, blurring the lines between traditional investment styles like value and growth.

Oil Curve Signals Short-Term Spike, Not Lasting Shock

In the context of the current Iran conflict, the oil curve is signaling that the short-term spike is unlikely to last.

Private Credit Chaos Is Crushing BDCs—Opportunity or Trap?

The poor sentiment toward private credit funds has dragged down many high-quality BDCs, as well as weaker ones.

Wall Street Sent a Clear Signal: No Guidance, No Mercy

The stark message from Wall Street is that forward sales and earnings guidance now take precedence over recent financial results.

Few Stocks Are Driving This Rally While Most Lag Behind

Regarding breadth, consider that despite the S&P 500 being at a record high, only 65% of stocks are above their 20-day moving averages

Record Low Consumer Sentiment Meets Record High Markets

The concern, however, is forward-looking. Sentiment doesn’t just measure how people feel; at times it can shape how they spend.

AI Arms Race Heats up While Apple Waits for Perfect Entry Point

While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash.